Bill Gates, co-founder of Microsoft (MS), has predicted that the spread of artificial intelligence (AI) will significantly diminish the role of humans. He expects the next 20 years to be a transitional period marked by major disruption across society as AI surpasses human intellectual and physical capabilities.
In an interview with The Observer, a sister publication of Britain's The Guardian, on Oct. 25 (local time), Gates described AI as an “evolutionary event,” saying it represents a shift to a new stage of life on Earth, comparable to the evolution from apes to humans.
He particularly predicted that humans would struggle to maintain their status as the most intelligent beings on Earth. “The smartest entity is being redefined,” Gates said, suggesting that advances in AI are changing the very concept of intelligence.
Gates also predicted that mathematicians would benefit from AI advances over the next several years, but that AI would eventually surpass human capabilities. “Within the next 20 years, AI will become superior to humans in mathematics, biology, engineering design and other fields,” he said. “We are at a very dramatic point in history.”
He also assessed that AI has begun to outperform humans in coding. “Around the end of last year, I realized that the coding skills I had been obsessed with since I was 13 had essentially become useless,” Gates said. His remarks reflected how even he, having led the IT industry for decades, has personally experienced the changing value of established skills as AI advances.
Gates also warned that AI would fundamentally transform the labor market. He predicted that humanoid robots and other AI technologies could replace not only human physical labor but also office work and even the ability to invent. This suggests that, apart from productivity gains driven by technological advances, determining what roles people who lose their jobs will take on will emerge as a major social challenge.
Appearing on the “Decoder” podcast the same day, Gates also predicted that AI could ultimately create a society of abundance, but humanity would experience considerable disruption along the way. He described the next 20 years as “the most disruptive period in human history,” adding, “My biggest concern is the 20-year transition period, when there will be winners and losers and a great deal of disruption.”
He went on to warn that “human labor will no longer be needed for almost any goods or services.” As AI replaces human workers, the ways goods are produced and services are delivered could change dramatically.
However, Gates emphasized that activities performed directly by humans would not necessarily lose their value. Even if AI achieves superior results, society could choose to preserve art, sports, cooking and child care as areas of human activity. He also said policymakers would need to consider whether AI should take over every task it is technically capable of performing and to what extent human participation and roles should be maintained.
“If AI says to me, 'I'm better than you, so go play pickleball, a racket sport similar to tennis. I'll take care of this and get back to you later,' that's not something we can simply laugh off,” Gates said.
